Some traders still see a rally toward $2,000 as a potential bull trap before ETH makes one final move lower.
Pseudonymous crypto trader NoName says Ethereum has just crossed into the price zone where its bear market has historically bottomed, pointing to four straight lower highs as proof the downtrend has run its course.
The trader, who is buying through the dip with a long-term target of $7,000, argues that the same crowd psychology that made ETH everyone’s favorite trade at $4,900 is now working against it below $2,000.
Mapping Out the Bottom Zone
In a post shared Friday, NoName laid out Ethereum’s decline through four descending peaks: $4,957, then $3,400, then $2,460, then $1,950, calling it a textbook downtrend. Each top landed lower than the one before it, and the trader said that sequence has now pushed price into the $1,300 to $1,900 range, the zone treated as the eventual floor.
The reasoning is less technical than psychological, with the analyst noting that ETH at $4,900 was a favorite while ETH under $2,000 gets called a dead chain, even though nothing about the network changed. “That’s not logic, that’s psychology, and psychology marks bottoms,” NoName wrote, adding that the climb back up will likely be rough.
Other signals moved the same day, including a bullish crossover in ETH’s MVRV ratio against its 160-day moving average as pointed out by chartist Ali Martinez. That setup has come right before several major recoveries in the past by marking the end of distribution phases.
Meanwhile, Arab Chain reported that Ethereum’s 30-day funding rate average on Binance climbed roughly 0.00339, its highest reading in six months, with ETH trading near $1,920 at the time, a sign of improving sentiment though not yet at levels tied to past corrections.
The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency was itself changing hands just below $1,900 at the time of writing, per CoinGecko data, up close to 12% over the past month but still 62% below the $4,946 all-time high it hit last August. The token slipped from a seven-week high near $1,950 earlier this week and needs to reclaim $2,000 to build any further push.
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Not Everyone Is Convinced the Bottom Is In
CryptoQuant struck a more cautious note on Thursday, noting that ETH was trading roughly 17% below its realized price but that only two of five bottom-signal metrics it tracks have reached historical extremes. “Capitulation is still missing,” the platform said.
Whale buying has continued regardless. Lookonchain tracked a wallet purchasing 27,000 ETH worth $52 million through Galaxy Digital’s OTC desk, and Arthur Hayes, whose BitMEX exchange recently announced it will be shutting down in September, added another 644 ETH, bringing his total over eight days to 3,270 ETH.
At the same time, spot Ethereum ETFs have pulled in over $408 million this month, and Kalshi traders are pricing ETH near $3,200 by year’s end.
But not every path lines up with NoName’s. Analyst Nonzee expects one more rally toward $2,000, or $2,200 if Bitcoin climbs to $70,000, but calls that level a bull trap rather than a real breakout, with a drop toward $900 to $1,300 still likely first. His long-term target, though, lands in the same place as NoName’s: $7,000.
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